Berlin. The Netherlands has already voted – now things are getting serious in other countries too. The first results will only be available on Sunday evening – this is due to a certain EU country.
Who will control European politics from Strasbourg and Brussels in the future? This issue is at the heart of the elections, in which around 65 million people will be asked to vote in Germany on Sunday. The first and only national vote between the 2021 and 2025 federal elections will also serve as a parameter for the political situation in Berlin.
After two and a half years in power, will the traffic light government really be punished as severely as polls suggest? How strong will the AfD become? And how is the electoral debut of Sahra Wagenknecht’s new party going? Last but not least, the election can also be important for a chancellor candidate.
Crash test for traffic lights: how does Scholz and Co. perform?
In the 2021 federal elections, the three government parties SPD, Greens and FDP together achieved just under 52 percent. After two and a half years in government, they now only get 31 to 33 percent in polls for the European elections. So the question is: How bitter will election night be for traffic lights?
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD had already achieved its worst historical result in a national vote in the 2019 European elections, with 15.8 percent. If this time she undermines that, which seems quite possible according to the polls, Scholz would also have to be held responsible for that. During the election campaign, he deliberately placed himself in the front row next to the main candidate Katarina Barley, published posters with her and appeared at several important events. Recently, however, the SPD’s electoral defeats at the state level have not led to major discussions about the direction of the party or the chancellor. They were borne in silence. Let’s see if it will continue like this in the event of another historic defeat.
However, the Greens had the biggest fall of the traffic light parties, with a result of 20.5 percent in the previous European elections. In the polls they are now between 13% and 15%. It remains to be seen whether the party will achieve its self-imposed goal of finishing ahead of the AfD. However, the Greens are unlikely to take out their frustration over a possible electoral defeat for the coalition. Despite all the disputes, the party remains firm in traffic lights and in its own governmental responsibility.
In response to the lost elections, the FDP has recently been the most likely to cause problems in the governing alliance. And the Liberals can still reduce the already very modest 5.4 percent from the last election, despite having fielded a top candidate, defense politician Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann. In polls they are between 4% and 5%.
Will an election victory help Merz run for chancellor?
The Union also sees the first national elections since the 2021 federal election disaster as an opportunity to demonstrate its return. According to polls with stable figures at around 30 percent, the Union has every chance of becoming the strongest force. CDU President Friedrich Merz and CSU head Markus Söder are likely to see the result on election night as a plebiscite against the policies of Chancellor Scholz’s traffic light government.
Merz, who was confirmed as CDU leader for the first time in early May with almost 90 percent, could also interpret a result in this region as a sign of his consolidated internal position of power. Union bigwigs are likely to be cautious in interpreting whether the European elections can be interpreted as a sign or even a preliminary decision for the Union’s internal K issue. On the one hand, Merz is considered by many to be the most likely candidate for chancellor – if you so wish. Söder and North Rhine-Westphalia Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst are still considered other possible candidates. The Union intends to clarify its candidate for chancellor after the elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg in September.
How strong will the shift to the right be?
As throughout Europe, in Germany the question arises of how strong right-wing parties will become. The AfD can expect gains, but probably less than seemed possible a few months ago. At the start of the year, it looked like this time she might double her 11 percent vote share from the last European elections. Then came the massive demonstrations following reports of a right-wing meeting in Potsdam and weeks of headlines about possible Russian and Chinese involvement from the AfD’s two main candidates, Maximilian Krah and Petr Bystron. More recently, the AfD was between 14% and 17% in polls. It is unclear what influence the knife attack in Mannheim, a good week before the elections, might have on the AfD’s outcome.
It will also be interesting to see if the AfD can strengthen its position at the lowest political level. Parallel to the European elections, local elections are taking place in eight federal states. In Thuringia, the AfD made significant gains in many district assemblies and municipal councils in local elections two weeks ago. There will be runoff elections this Sunday to fill several district administrator and mayor positions.
Will the Wagenknecht party pass the first test?
The European elections are the first test for the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance, founded in January. The party’s founder was the central figure of the election campaign – although she herself is not running for the European Parliament. Since May 15, the 54-year-old has held 18 rallies across the country on the “Sahra Comes” tour, which, according to the party, each attracted several hundred people. Peace in Ukraine, heating law and ban on combustion engines, pensions, migration – Wagenknecht points out the social pressure points with sometimes strident criticism of the traffic light coalition, and his supporters are often enthusiastic.
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However, Wagenknecht recently seemed a little unsure about how much points her party can actually score in its first election. As recently as autumn 2023, she said she expected a double-digit result in the European elections. Now she says: “I expect a five percent increase. This would be a sensational success for a party that has been in existence for six months.” Recent research has actually pegged BSW at between five and seven percent.
© dpa-infocom, dpa:240607-99-305654/3 (dpa)