/ Nuremberg Clinic, Giulia Iannicelli
Berlin Even the growing number of trained doctors and nurses does not mean that the shortage of qualified workers in the health system is over. It shows a To assess of the German Hospital Institute (DKI) on behalf of the German Hospital Society (DKG).
According to this, by 2035 the number of doctors will increase by about 15,400 (eight percent), the number of registered nurses by 32,100 (seven percent) and the number of registered pediatric nurses by up to 20 percent (9,100).
But this is not enough. On the one hand, according to the DKI study, this increase would be lower than in previous years. Between 2025 and 2030, the number of people leaving the profession due to age will even exceed the number of people entering the job market, despite the above-mentioned increases and including immigration. The study sees slight improvements for the period after 2030 and expects an increasing number of graduates.
Furthermore, the high proportion of part-time employment in the health sector would continue to be a problem. If the trend towards shorter working hours continues, this effect could offset the small increases in the number of employees and, in a pessimistic case, the number of full-time employees could even decline.
Even in optimistic scenarios, we will not be able to compensate for the shortage of skilled workers in the healthcare system with ever more staff, because these staff will simply not exist, said Gerald Ga, CEO of DKG.
Immigration is not the only solution either, as here too the numbers will never be sufficient and, at the same time, typical countries of origin have higher internal needs due to demographic changes.
If we want to solve the shortage of skilled workers, we must not only enable more digitalization and flexibility in staff distribution, but also allow more outpatient treatment in hospitals, says Ga. A workforce of tens of thousands of skilled workers in nursing alone would be additionally available if the bureaucratic burden were halved.
Our study shows that the potential for skilled workers does not need to decline globally until 2035. Given the increasing demand for skilled workers due to demographics, there is no reason to go all out, explained Karl Blum, DKI board member.
Politicians and hospitals must further enhance the attractiveness of the medical and nursing professions in order to survive the competition for trainees and young professionals and to avoid premature exits from the profession. © aha/aerzteblatt.de