Moscow. Kremlin leader Putin begins his fifth term in office with a series of events. He also wants to present himself as a strong warlord in a military parade in the midst of his attack on Ukraine.
Moscow’s security apparatus is under pressure these May days to protect longtime president Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin leader has been in power for almost a quarter of a century and plans his fifth inauguration on May 7 – following the March elections, with a controversial record result of 87.28 percent.
The next day, the 71-year-old will receive guests from foreign states at the anniversary summit of the Eurasian Economic Union, founded 10 years ago. The series of events culminates on May 9 with a large military parade, including a speech by Putin, who has been waging war against Ukraine for more than two years. The question resonating everywhere is what comes next – and how long Putin will stay.
The Russian president has repeatedly stated that he fights for a new multipolar world order – far from US supremacy. And, not least, he portrays his war against Ukraine as a fight against NATO and the West as a whole. In the third year of the invasion, his power apparatus is brimming with self-confidence – also because Western sanctions have so far been unable to stop the Russian war machine or bring the country to its economic knees.
The war economy makes the economy grow
Putin said in late April that the economic foundation was solid and the momentum was good. “Industrial activity is growing.” Since the embargo in the West, the raw materials powerhouse has sold its oil and gas mainly to the East, China and India. Thanks in part to the acceleration of the war economy, Russia expects growth of about three percent this year. A good employment situation and stable income also guarantee the population’s loyalty, as experts emphasize.
“Russia’s successes in adapting to war have really exceeded expectations,” says expert Maxim Samorukov, from the American think tank Carnegie. “Putin’s system appears to be more invulnerable today than ever before.” Western military experts also attest to the Russians’ tactical successes at the front.
However, peace talks with Russia are nowhere in sight. Moscow emphasizes its readiness for such negotiations almost every day. But doubts remain that Putin is serious. On the contrary, it is to be expected that the army will not only fully annex the annexed, but so far only partially controlled areas of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Putin, who has an arrest warrant issued by the World Criminal Court in The Hague for war crimes in Ukraine, could at least want to conquer Kharkiv in the east and Odessa in the south in order to deprive Ukraine of its last access to the oceans. of the world. in the Black Sea.
At this point, it is clear that the invasion will have a significant impact on Putin’s new term. The Kremlin chief is not expected to have an easy reign over the next six years. There are many problems and risks.
Power struggles in Moscow
Putin will also appoint a new government after inauguration, as the existing one traditionally submits its resignation first. No serious changes are expected. However, the Kremlin chief will once again have to balance the various interest groups in order to counter power struggles. In the midst of the war, he is currently seeing one of the country’s most powerful military officers, Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, arrested for bribery.
Many Russians rub their eyes because these influential representatives of the security apparatus with access to vast resources are often not publicly criticized. “Contradictions within the system are growing and being resolved violently,” writes political scientist Andrei Pertsev in an analysis for Carnegie. He sees that, unlike in the past, Putin hardly acts as an arbiter between different groups. “Influential groups are attacking each other even more actively than before the war,” says Pertsev.
Many people still remember the revolt of the head of Wagner’s private army, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a year ago. Prigozhin accused the military leadership around Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of corruption and massive failures. Putin’s confidant eventually gave in – and died in August, exactly two months after the failed coup, in a plane crash that remains unsolved to this day.
After the shock, there was a feeling of calm. But the case of Shoigu’s confidant Ivanov, now in prison, shows, according to experts, that things are still simmering – and that other groups could also try to limit the influence of the defense minister, who is a friend of Putin. Others may try to take power.
The security situation remains tense
The security situation in the country is anything but stable. Last but not least, the horror of the terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall concert hall, near Moscow, which left more than 100 dead and hundreds injured, is still fresh. The fight against terrorism is not over.
Furthermore, regions bordering Ukraine – especially Belgorod – are increasingly exposed to shelling and attacks from the Ukrainian side. The deaths, injuries and massive destruction are putting Russian authorities under pressure. There are repeated allegations that Putin has been unable to fulfill his security promises.
Kiev invokes its right to defense by destroying fuel depots and military bases on the Russian side. However, the consequences of such attacks are disproportionate to the massive destruction and many victims on the Ukrainian side.
Experts believe Putin’s system is unstable
This still does not cause Putin’s own system to falter. Everything seems under control. “But at any moment everything can get out of control,” says political scientist Samorukov. The danger does not come from Putin’s opponents, the opposition is fragmented and even more weakened after the death of Putin’s opponent, Alexei Navalny, but from the inner core of the system itself, that is, from Putin, because everything is centered exclusively on him as the bearer of all decisions.
Putin has lived “for many years in a narrow circle of submissive courtiers who only feed his prejudices, resentments and illusions”, says Samorukov. Wrong decisions can, at some point, become suicidal – and lead to the collapse of the system, says the expert.
The Kremlin always rejects the fact that Putin lives in an illusory world, is unilaterally informed by subordinates and has lost touch with reality or that his health is poor. However, experts expect that after an increasingly authoritarian turn in recent years, the Kremlin chief will likely intensify political repression to maintain power.
The image of a fortress that Moscow presents as a center of power in these May Days fits into this. In the three major events planned, Putin now wants to show that he is not isolated internationally – and that he will likely be a force to be reckoned with on the world stage for a long time to come.
He has already surpassed most Russian rulers in staying in power. By August he will have been in power for 25 years – sometimes as head of government and mainly as president. He soon caught up with Soviet dictator Josef Stalin. And if he runs for election again in 2030 and is elected again, he could end up ruling even longer than Catherine the Great, who held the reins of power for 34 years.
© dpa-infocom, dpa:240505-99-920568/6 (dpa)