A majority of Americans don’t believe Joe Biden will live through another term in office — but experts say it is actually Donald Trump who is less likely to survive the next four years.
That is the conclusion of professors at the University of Chicago and the University of Hawaii, who said that while gaffe-prone President Biden, 81, is older than Trump, 77, he has a better diet, exercise routine and genetics, three drivers of longevity.
The researchers were responsible for a controversial report during the 2020 presidential campaign — where they gave Biden a 95 percent chance of surviving until 2024 and Trump a 90 percent chance.
While they have not yet fully pronounced on the matter this time around, they have given their latest preliminary predictions in an opinion piece published earlier this month.
The experts said there was a 75 percent chance of Biden surviving to 2028, at which point he will be 85. But for Trump they said the odds were ‘slightly less favorable’. Either way, whoever wins will be the oldest President ever in history.
The above graphic shows some of the main factors the researchers considered when estimating which man was more likely to survive another term in office
It comes as age becomes a stand-out issue in this year’s election — with just a quarter of Americans believing Biden has the mental and cognitive health to serve another term.
Nikki Haley — who is trailing Trump in the Republican nominee polls — has called for cognitive tests for presidents.
Professor S. Jay Olshansky, from Chicago, revealed his new life expectancy predictions for Trump and Biden in a commentary piece for The Hill. It was co-authored with Dr Bradley Willcox, a geriatrician at the University of Hawaii, who was also involved in the 2020 report.
He pointed to Trump’s notorious love for fast food and soda, as well as his bad sleeping habits (once claiming he only slept a mere three hours a night).
Olshansky also highlighted that Trump’s father suffered from Alzheimer’s, meaning there could be a genetic risk.
Biden, by comparison, eats a healthy diet and reportedly exercises nearly every morning.
All four of his younger siblings are also still alive and dementia has not previously been recorded in the family.
‘There is nothing unusual about our conclusion,’ he told DailyMail.com, ‘it’s what the evidence suggests’.
‘The data speak for themselves.’
President Joe Biden is helped up after falling during the graduation ceremony at the United States Air Force Academy in Colorado. He fell while handing out diplomas to cadets
The former President’s penchant for fast food is known the world over. He told Fox News that he does not have time to eat as a normal person would because of his busy schedule, but did not disclose what his diet consists of
The results come despite Biden appearing increasingly confused during public appearances, as well as a spate of frightening falls.
Just earlier this month, the 81-year-old was filmed appearing to be ‘lost’ while he visited a bike shop in Allentown, Pennsylvania.
And last year the President had to be helped up by secret service members when he fell over while attending a ceremony in Colorado.
Several doctors have told DailyMail.com in recent weeks that former President Trump has appeared more gaunt and uncharacteristically unsteady on his feet and frail – amid mounting legal troubles.
On Biden’s gaffes, Dr Olshansky said these did not raise significant concerns, saying: ‘It is also common to mistake Biden’s lifelong speech impediment for cognitive decline, his cough for an inability to speak clearly, his changed gait for a man in significant decline, an occasional misstatement as a sign of mental decay, etc.
‘Each of us bears our own challenges with age — this is not a reason to dismiss and discard. It’s a recognition that along with the privilege of long life, come changes that require adaptation.
‘We see them in Biden because he’s under a 24/7 spotlight.
‘Place the same bright light of the media on any of the rest of us — at any age — and few would survive the scrutiny without a similar negative profile.’
The researchers told DailyMail.com they were ‘neutral’ politically and had never worked for or campaigned for either party.
Dr Olshansky also named the two men as ‘super-agers’ — or people whose physical and cognitive health looks like that of much younger men.
But he has previously told AP: ‘Biden is likely to outlive Trump because he has fewer harmful risk factors and he does exercise quite notably, whereas Trump does not.
‘[But overall] they’re both functioning at a very high level.’
He added: ‘If you don’t like what they say, it’s not because of how old they are. It’s because you don’t like what they say.’
In the poll, 51% of Democrats also said they didn’t want to see another run from the incumbent president
Former President Donald Trump holds a 6-point lead over President Joe Biden in a new Reuters-Ipsos poll