The US could soon face a crisis in ‘underpopulation’ – with the birth rate predicted to drop to a level that risks societal catastrophe, a new report suggests.
Currently, American women are birthing an average of roughly 1.6 babies. But according to a new analysis published in the prestigious Lancet journal, by 2050, this is predicted to fall to 1.53 and by 2100, 1.45.
This is half the rate in 1950, at 3.08 births per woman, and well below the rate in 1980, which was 1.79 births per woman.
The concern is that this figure is way below the replacement level of 2.1 children — the number each woman would need to have, on average, to replace both parents, and maintain the economic climate.
The birth rate in the US is expected to fall to levels lower than western nations such as The Netherlands and Israel – but it will remain higher than the UK.
The analysis, by researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), looked at birth rate patterns in all of the world’s nations.
It predicted that the 2100 US birth rate will be below the rates in other high-income nations such as the Netherlands, where the birth rate is expected to be 1.54 and Israel, where it is expected to be 2.09.
But the US will outpace many other countries including the UK (1.30), Germany (1.40) and China (1.16) by the year 2100.
Three in four countries face the threat of ‘underpopulation’ by 2050, the experts found, with the problem particularly acute in wealthy nations.
By 2100 this could even rise to 97 per cent of all nations, following current trends.
Only low-income countries will see rising birth rates, but they will struggle to support a young population.
The study also predicted half of all babies will be born in sub-Saharan Africa by 2100.
Fertility replacement, however, doesn’t account for the impact of migration, meaning overall population levels can still increase in a country despite a drop in fertility rates.
While many scientists have warned about the threat of overpopulation on the environment, food and housing supplies, underpopulation is also a challenge.
If unaddressed, it can lead to an increasing ageing population, with a significant proportion needing care and unable to work.
The study’s senior author Dr Stein Emil Vollset, from the University of Washington, said women in high-income countries who wish to have children must be better supported to maintain population size and economic growth.
‘We are facing staggering social change through the 21st century,’ he said.
‘The world will be simultaneously tackling a baby boom in some countries and a baby bust in others.’
He also warned that some of the poorest and most politically unstable countries in Africa will be grappling with how to support the youngest, fastest-growing population on the planet.
The figures project that by 2050, seven of the top 10 countries with the highest birth rates will be in sub-Saharan Africa. Niger tops the list with a rate of 5.15.
In the US, the fertility rate was 3.08 in 1950, dropping to 1.79 in 1980. In 2021 it stood at a lower 1.64, the study found. Separate data suggests similar figures.
By 2050, however, it is predicted to fall even further to 1.52. Researchers forecast it will sit at 1.45 in 2100.
But the reasons why people are, on average, having less children in some countries have long been considered complex.
Some women are choosing to have children later in life and instead focus on their careers during their younger years.
As fertility is linked to age, this can lead to some women never having children or fewer than they might originally have planned.
Experts have previously warned that some are prioritizing careers over families, which they say has put the country on an irreversible path to economic decline.
Many millenials also say they do not want to have children.
Rising cost-of-living pressures, especially the price of childcare, is another factor that puts a dampener on couples having children or deciding to have multiple.
In recent years, fears of a pending climate-change driven environmental catastrophe have also put younger people off having children.
The threat of underpopulation has been a pet topic of eccentric Tesla billionaire Elon Musk, who has preached about it for years.
In 2017, he said that the number of people on Earth is ‘accelerating towards collapse but few seem to notice or care’.
Then in 2021 he warned that civilisation is ‘going to crumble’ if people don’t have more children.
Study co-lead author and lead research scientist Dr Natalia Bhattacharjee said the trends will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power, forcing societies to reorganise.
She added: ‘The implications are immense. Global recognition of the challenges around migration and global aid networks are going to be all the more critical when there is fierce competition for migrants to sustain economic growth and as sub-Saharan Africa’s baby boom continues.’
The international research project, published in The Lancet, looked at past, current, and future trends in fertility and live births.
The authors warned that governments must start planning for threats to economies, food security, health, the environment and geopolitical security brought on by the demographic changes.